Pakistani arrests are multi-level message, but mostly its a warning

Bill O'Reilly's talking points is correct, it's an insult to the U.S. for Pakistan to arrest five of the informants who helped us to take down Osama bin Laden. More than that, it's a public effrontery that, not only have they arrested this individuals, but that they have made the arrest public knowledge. Where O'Reilly stops short is in considering the question, "Why? What message is Pakistan trying to send and to whom?"

There are several answers to these questions. Who are the recipients of the message? Of course, we've already considered ourselves. Then there's Russia and China, which, as O'Reilly points out, are interested in courting Pakistan, as well. For Russia and China, the message is, "This relationship with the U.S. is not exclusive."

Then, there are the people of Pakistan who haven't universally sided with the U.S. against Al-Qaeda. This is more than just face saving for the Pakistanis; this is the stuff wild celebrations in the street are made of.

Of course, it's also a message to Al-Qaeda and the Taliban: "Don't worry, we're still friends."

I think Al-Qaeda and the Taliban understand the Pakistani/U.S. relationship better than our people in Congress and the White House. While meeting in caves somewhere, or compounds close to Pakistani security forces, they discuss how funny it is that their good friends, the Pakistanis, have actually received $20 billion from the U.S. over the years to pretend that they're allies. "Yes, yes, the Pakistanis only complain when the Americans hit our people with drone missiles. Allah understands."

Of course, the message does more than that; it also warns Pakistanis of the dire consequences of actually working with the Americans against Al-Qaeda and the Taliban: "You five fools - are you as stupid as the Americans? Did you really think we were trying to help them? It's all a game. We take their money and make a show of support here and there. We don't really want them to succeed. Now, off with your heads."

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